Three Big Ideas #58
Fleeing founders, quantum quandary, and when crime doesn’t pay
Welcome to our fortnightly Three Big Ideas roundup, in which we serve up a curated selection of ideas (and our takes on them) in entrepreneurship, innovation, science and technology, handpicked by the team.
🌍 Philip Salter, Founder
Is Europe losing its startups? That’s the question addressed in a new paper from the EU’s Joint Research Centre. The answer, of course, is yes: around 3.3–4.3% of European VC-backed startups relocate their headquarters abroad — roughly 10 times the rate of comparable non-VC-backed firms.
The United States dominates as a destination, accounting for around three quarters of moves, with San Francisco, Boston and New York the favoured landing spots. The picture is more nuanced than the headline suggests, though, as 97% of relocations are partial, meaning firms keep operations in their home country, and in a quarter of cases the CEO doesn’t move. Perhaps most concerning, relocation is concentrated in the earliest years. Nearly half of firms leave within their first three years, before they’ve had a chance to embed locally through hiring or R&D, and this is skewed towards asset-light sectors like IT — precisely the high-value, high-growth industries Europe most wants to keep.
The most ambitious firms are the most footloose, with other research cited finding relocation rates of around 13% among larger scaleups and nearly 30% among unicorns. The primary driver is that US investors frequently require — or at least prefer — a Delaware-incorporated parent as a precondition for funding.
Whether this amounts to a serious loss is genuinely unclear. On the one hand, a Delaware flip might allow a firm to raise the round that creates hundreds of jobs back home; or it might be the first step in a gradual shift of gravity westward. Research cited in the paper suggests that around 65% of the workforce ends up in the country of relocation among firms that eventually IPO, but without US funding there might never have been an avenue to scale.
For the UK, the picture cuts both ways. Britain is the second most popular destination for relocated European startups, capturing around 7% of moves — a reflection of genuine strengths in the UK’s entrepreneurial ecosystem. That shouldn’t be surprising: our own research finds that 54% of Britain’s 100 fastest-growing companies have a foreign-born founder or co-founder, drawn from 29 countries across every continent bar Antarctica.
Policymakers in the UK — and actors in our entrepreneurial ecosystem — might be best focused on competing for a larger share of the startups that are going to move anyway. To that end, the Migration Advisory Committee is currently reviewing the Global Talent and Innovator Founder visa routes. Ease of movement won’t solve everything — there are many building blocks we need to put in place — but getting the visa regime right is a necessary condition for the UK to make the most of its position as Europe’s most attractive destination for mobile entrepreneurial talent.
🚔 Eamonn Ives, Research Director
I’ve written previously for Three Big Ideas about evidence suggesting that the gig economy helps to both lower unemployment and boost entrepreneurship. This week, more data emerged that further buttresses the case for gig work. In a new paper, the authors show that the rollout of Deliveroo and Uber Eats in France between 2015 and 2019 caused a reduction in crime rates.
Overall recorded crime falls by 3% following a platform’s entry to a local labour market, but there is an especially steep decline in ‘low-skill property crime’ — such as shoplifting and street robberies. There is little impact on ‘high-skill property crime’ — such as burglary and vehicle theft — but that result, if anything, bolsters the theory the authors put forward. Gig work is disproportionately performed by young men with limited formal qualifications, or people who face labour market discrimination such as migrants. By offering these individuals an opportunity to earn an honest living, platforms reduce their ‘need’ to engage in acquisitive crime. This is standard rational choice model thinking, as first espoused by criminal economists like Gary Becker over 60 years ago, which states that when legal work becomes more accessible, the opportunity cost of offending rises.
Beyond this, the paper also shows how the spread of gig platforms correspond with a reduction in vandalism and drug crime, because, the authors explain, “[t]hese offences are disproportionately committed by adolescents and young adults and tend to be concentrated in the evening and weekend hours that delivery shifts occupy.”
As noted above, plenty of evidence now exists of the purely economic benefits of gig work, especially for marginalised people. What’s interesting about this study, however, is how it illustrates how gig work has positive, broader societal impacts too. It raises the question of what other virtuous effects such platforms might be having on society, and implores policymakers to weigh these accordingly when regulating them.
⚛️ Mann Virdee, Head of Science and Technology
There are some technologies that seem to be perpetually on the periphery of productive commercial use. The running joke for nuclear fusion is that it’s always 30 years away. For quantum, it’s usually 10 years away. I was thinking about this yesterday as I visited Oxford Quantum Circuits (OQC), a spinout from the University of Oxford’s Department of Physics that’s about to raise a Series C.
Earlier this decade, the quantum computing industry went through a bit of a crisis of confidence and there was frequent talk of a ‘Quantum Winter’. But that’s perhaps a natural response to the quantum hype and those labelling the technology ‘bigger than fire’.
At the time, the industry was focused on increasing the number of qubits (quantum bits) in a quantum computer without the need for full error correction (which protects quantum information from errors). But it soon became clear that tackling the source of those errors, noise, was critical to opening up productive applications of quantum computing.
To be clear, there are still sceptics who believe that quantum computing cannot deliver on its promises. But a pivot towards fault-tolerant quantum computing has led to a measured and widely-shared increase in confidence about its near-term utility and the need to prepare for a world with quantum computers.
A blog last week from Google Research suggests that quantum computers could break cryptocurrencies sooner than previously predicted. They argue that there is still time for blockchains to migrate to post-quantum cryptography to ensure they are resilient to quantum attacks, but that time window is shrinking.
The deadline to prepare for quantum computers and the capabilities they will begin to unlock has been brought forward to 2029. That’s not to say we will have fully productive quantum computers by then, but that firms should be prepared.
Some applications such as fraud prevention are likely to be the lowest hanging fruit for quantum computers and can be tackled in the coming few years in the range of millions of operations. As that progresses to billions and trillions, it should open up other applications such as drug discovery.
The UK is well placed to capitalise on this. The Government recently announced funding of up to £2 billion to support the development and commercialisation of quantum technologies, and help strengthen Britain’s quantum pipeline. With the creation of our new Science and Technology Forum, we’ll be doing our part to support founders in quantum and across all areas of science and technology in growing and scaling their businesses.